Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
