Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
